Review of the September 2026 Report

Pegisai Global Holdings. Published 18 September 2026. Companion to "The Alkaimi Currency Value Index at 1 September 2026".

What moved, and what did not

Both columns of the September report are computed on the current formula, so every change between May and September is a change in the inputs. Four inputs moved. The fiscal inputs moved from the 2025 figures to the 2026 figures of the IMF World Economic Outlook of April 2026, and the 2026 figures carry the Gulf war that began on 28 February 2026 and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz from early March. Brent fell from 114.66 dollars a barrel on 30 April to 93.03 on 31 August, which lowers the coverage of every currency backed by state hydrocarbons. Money supply moved from its April 2026 level to its July or August 2026 level, with the year-on-year growth rate carried unchanged, and is measured against real output in constant prices, as the formula brief states. Gold holdings moved where a central bank reported a change, China above all. The gold price, the sovereign wealth fund figures, defense spending and the categorical scores are the same in both columns.

GCC sovereign currencies

Kuwait, 66.1 to 59.9, down 6.2.The fiscal factor fell from 0.90 to 0.85 as the Outlook's debt figure moved from 14.6 to 22.3 percent of GDP, and the monetary factor eased from 0.74 to 0.72 as real growth moved from 3.5 percent to -0.6 percent with money supply at 103 percent of real output. Behind the inputs: Kuwait exported more than two million barrels a day through the Strait of Hormuz before the war, and AGBI reported in May that those exports had halted; the government, which had revived its debt law in March 2025, issued 27 billion dollars of bonds between October 2025 and July 2026, and the Kuwait Times reported the finance ministry's deficit for the fiscal year to 31 March at 7.1 billion dinars, the widest since the pandemic, with the 2026 to 2027 deficit expected above 20 percent of GDP. Coverage stays at 1.00 on a ratio of 40.

Saudi Arabia, 44.9 to 45.4, up 0.5.The fiscal factor rose from 0.74 to 0.76 as the Outlook's deficit narrowed from 5.8 to 3.5 percent of GDP, while real growth eased from 4.5 percent to 3.1 percent. Behind the inputs: oil prices rose about 50 percent between February and May, by the Congressional Research Service's count, and Saudi crude moved by the East-West pipeline to the Red Sea while the Gulf was closed; Trading Economics reported Saudi output at its lowest since 1990 as tanker flows from the Gulf stayed disrupted. Coverage stays at 1.00.

Qatar, 49.8 to 38.1, down 11.7, the largest fall of the twenty.The monetary factor fell from 0.72 to 0.59 as the Outlook's real growth moved from 2.8 percent to -8.6 percent, which lifted money supply over real output to 115 percent of real output; the fiscal factor fell from 0.72 to 0.69 as the deficit widened from 1.0 to 3.4 percent of GDP and debt rose from 41.4 to 43.3 percent of GDP. Behind the inputs: Qatar's liquefied gas leaves only by the Strait of Hormuz, and GIS Reports recorded that QatarEnergy halted production and declared force majeure after Iranian drone attacks on Ras Laffan and Mesaieed in early March, then lost about 17 percent of export capacity to the missile strike on Ras Laffan on 19 March; AGBI reported in August that the economy shrank in the first quarter, with QatarEnergy's chief estimating annual revenue losses of 20 billion dollars and repairs of up to five years. Coverage stays at 1.00.

United Arab Emirates, 27.2 to 26.6, down 0.6.The fiscal factor rose from 0.77 to 0.79 as debt moved from 34.3 to 31.4 percent of GDP; real growth eased from 5.8 percent to 3.1 percent, and the monetary factor, 0.44 to 0.42, is the lowest of the five Gulf currencies and the reason the dirham sits below 30: money supply is 150 percent of real output and grew 19 percent in the year to the World Bank's 2025 figure, the fastest growth of the twenty. Behind the inputs: the Habshan to Fujairah pipeline carries Abu Dhabi crude to the Gulf of Oman without the Strait, so exports continued through the closure. Coverage stays at 1.00.

Oman, 41.7 to 43.5, up 1.8.The fiscal factor rose from 0.76 to 0.78 as debt moved from 35.8 to 32.7 percent of GDP, and the monetary factor from 0.78 to 0.79 as real growth moved from 2.4 percent to 3.5 percent. Behind the inputs: The GCC Edge reported the Oman Investment Authority's 2025 profit of about 7.5 billion dollars and the public debt ratio cut to 35.7 percent from a peak of 67.9 percent in 2020; Oman's ports lie on the Gulf of Oman, outside the Strait. The drag on the rial is money supply growth of 14.9 percent in the year to July, reported by the Central Bank of Oman. Coverage stays at 1.00.

Western and major reserve currencies

Switzerland, 9.6 to 9.6, unchanged.No input moved beyond rounding: debt 39.4 to 38.5 percent of GDP, real growth 1.3 percent in both years, money supply up 4.2 percent in the year to July by the Swiss National Bank's figure and standing at 137 percent of real output, the monetary factor 0.55. The franc is held below 10 by that factor and by coverage of 0.33: the National Bank's 1,040 tonnes of gold against a money supply of 1.1 trillion francs, with its foreign exchange holdings outside the formula's hard assets.

Euro area, 1.5 to 1.5, unchanged.Debt moved from 87.1 to 87.8 percent of GDP and the deficit from 3.0 to 3.3 percent of GDP, money supply grew 4.4 percent in the year to July by the European Central Bank's figure and stands at 123 percent of real output, and coverage held at 0.28. The euro is fixed under 2 by a fiscal factor of 0.40, a settlement factor of 0.60 for the 2012 Greek haircut with central bank involvement, a tax factor of 0.55, and a bail-in factor of 0.70 for the Cyprus precedent.

United Kingdom, 1.9 to 1.8, down 0.1.The deficit narrowed from 5.4 to 3.9 percent of GDP while debt rose from 102.3 to 103.6 percent of GDP, leaving the fiscal factor at 0.30; real growth eased from 1.3 percent to 0.8 percent; money supply stands at 131 percent of real output. Coverage is 0.05, the floor: 310 tonnes of gold and 2.5 billion barrels of reserves against a money supply of 3.3 trillion pounds.

India, 4.9 to 4.5, down 0.4.Real growth eased from 7.6 percent to 6.5 percent, and coverage fell from 0.38 to 0.35 on the lower oil price. Money supply grew 14.2 percent in the year to August by the Reserve Bank's figure against real growth of 6.5 percent, the growth penalty inside a monetary factor of 0.72. Debt at 83.4 percent and a deficit of 7.4 percent hold the fiscal factor at 0.41.

South Korea, 2.5 to 2.4, down 0.1.Debt moved from 52.3 to 54.4 percent of GDP and real growth from 1.0 percent to 1.9 percent. The won is held below 3 by money supply at 180 percent of real output, the second highest ratio of the twenty, which puts the monetary factor at 0.33, and by coverage of 0.24.

Japan, 0.1 to 0.1, unchanged.Debt moved from 206.5 to 204.4 percent of GDP, at the fiscal floor of 0.10 either way; money supply is 218 percent of real output, the monetary factor at its floor of 0.16; coverage is 0.12 on 846 tonnes of gold against a money supply of 1,296 trillion yen. No input that moved could move the score.

China, 0.6 to 0.5, down 0.1.The fiscal factor fell from 0.31 to 0.26 as the Outlook's debt moved from 99.2 to 106.9 percent of GDP and the deficit from 7.9 to 8.2 percent of GDP. The monetary factor is at its floor of 0.15 in both columns, money supply at 254 percent of real output and growing 7.5 percent in the year to August by the People's Bank's figure. Gold holdings rose from 2,313 tonnes at March to 2,387 at August by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange's reports, and coverage stayed at 0.29.

United States, 0.4 to 0.3, down 0.1.Debt moved from 123.9 to 125.8 percent of GDP and the deficit from 6.8 to 7.5 percent of GDP, the fiscal factor from 0.16 to 0.15; coverage fell from 0.33 to 0.31 on the lower oil price; money supply stands at 90 percent of real output. Behind the deficit: CNN reported at the April SIPRI release that Congress had approved more than a trillion dollars of defense spending for 2026 with the war costing about a billion dollars a day. The dollar's ceiling is set by a settlement factor of 0.60 and a bail-in factor of 0.20 for the 1933 gold seizure, so no movement in the data could lift the score past 3.

Regional currencies exchanged in Dubai

Bahrain, 2.9 to 2.6, down 0.3.Debt moved from 147.6 to 152.4 percent of GDP, at the fiscal floor of 0.10 either way; real growth moved from 3.1 percent to -0.5 percent, and the monetary factor from 0.72 to 0.68; coverage fell from 0.85 to 0.81 on the lower oil price. Behind the inputs: The GCC Edge reported the IMF's projection of a 0.5 percent contraction for 2026 after infrastructure damage at the Sitra refinery, a fiscal breakeven oil price of 130 dollars, and public debt at 131 percent of GDP in 2025; Trading Economics recorded Fitch's downgrade of Bahrain to B.

Jordan, 3.3 to 3.5, up 0.2.The deficit narrowed from 6.3 to 5.4 percent of GDP and debt from 82.8 to 81.8 percent of GDP; money supply at 116 percent of real output holds the monetary factor near 0.65. Coverage is 0.38 on 70 tonnes of gold with no reserves of size.

Egypt, 3.8 to 3.3, down 0.5.The deficit widened from 6.6 to 12.1 percent of GDP in the Outlook's 2026 figure, the fiscal factor from 0.39 to 0.37, and coverage fell from 1.00 to 0.92 on the lower oil price against 3.3 billion barrels and 1,800 billion cubic meters of state reserves. Money supply grew 17.5 percent in the year to July by the Central Bank of Egypt's figure and stands at 171 percent of real output, which holds the monetary factor at 0.34.

Pakistan, 7.0 to 7.0, unchanged.The fiscal factor rose from 0.49 to 0.52 as debt moved from 72.8 to 70.1 percent of GDP and the deficit from 5.4 to 3.2 percent of GDP, and coverage fell from 0.65 to 0.61 on the lower oil price; the two cancel. Money supply grew 15.7 percent in the year to the World Bank's 2025 figure and stands at 101 percent of real output.

Philippines, 5.7 to 5.6, down 0.1.No input moved beyond rounding: debt 59.4 to 60.2 percent of GDP, real growth 4.4 percent to 4.1 percent, money supply up 10.3 percent in the year to July by the central bank's figure at 85 percent of real output, coverage 0.35.

Brazil, 1.6 to 1.3, down 0.3.Coverage fell from 0.73 to 0.66 as Brent fell, on 13 billion barrels of state reserves; debt rose from 93.3 to 96.5 percent of GDP; money supply at 160 percent of real output holds the monetary factor at 0.41. The real is held below 2 by a settlement factor of 0.45 for the 1983 and 1987 defaults and a tax factor of 0.40 for the transaction tax on top of consumption taxes.

Russia, 3.7 to 3.7, unchanged.The deficit narrowed from 3.9 to 2.0 percent of GDP as debt moved from 17.2 to 19.1 percent of GDP; SIPRI's April release, reported by CNN, recorded rising revenue from oil sales behind military spending at 7.5 percent of GDP; money supply grew 13 percent in the year to July and stands at 131 percent of real output. Coverage is 1.00, the ratio above 3 on 2,336 tonnes of gold and 58 billion barrels. The ruble's ceiling is set by a settlement factor of 0.25 for the 1998, Soviet and 2022 defaults and a tax factor of 0.40 for the capital controls since 2022.

Sources

IMF, World Economic Outlook database, April 2026, 2025 and 2026 values. World Bank, GDP in constant local currency; Eurostat, euro area GDP at 2020 prices. Central bank monetary statistics as listed in the September report. Kuwait: AGBI, 21 May 2026 and 30 July 2026; Kuwait Times, 25 July 2026. Qatar: GIS Reports, 14 July 2026; AGBI, August 2026. Saudi Arabia: Congressional Research Service, R45281, 7 August 2026; Trading Economics, 15 September 2026. Oman and Bahrain: The GCC Edge, 27 June 2026. United States and Russia: CNN, 27 April 2026, on the SIPRI release. Brent: the published benchmark quotations of 30 April and 31 August 2026.

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